AI headlines are everywhere—and many claim they know exactly what’s coming next. In product management, I’m often asked to make single-point predictions about gen ai and LLMs for product managers. I resist that temptation because confident forecasts are seductive—and usually wrong.
Listening to Teresa Torres and Petra Wille unpack why certainty fails reinforced what I practice with my product trios: scenario planning. Instead of betting on one future, I explore several plausible ones, define the signals that would confirm or disconfirm each, and translate those insights into product strategy and product roadmapping and sprint planning we can adapt as evidence evolves.
Their argument mirrors what I see with customers and stakeholders: people are bad at predicting the future, and overconfidence creates fragility. Early adopters don’t represent everyone, so when we extrapolate from enthusiasts to the mainstream, we waste time and erode trust by building the wrong things.
Here’s how I apply this to avoid technology FOMO and make sharper AI Strategy decisions. I treat every bold claim as one possible future, then ask, “what else could happen?” I push extremes—AI everywhere vs. AI as invisible utility; GUIs vanish vs. GUIs evolve; centralized vs. edge compute—and hunt for the needs that stay true across scenarios. Those invariants anchor empowered product teams to outcomes, not outputs, and they help us stage bets responsibly.
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My key takeaways: Confident predictions are often wrong. Early adopters don’t represent everyone. Treat predictions as one possible future. Scenario planning > trying to be right. Focus on patterns, not hype.
In short: We’re in a period of change—but no one can predict exactly how it plays out. Strong predictions often ignore uncertainty.
A better approach in practice: Treat every prediction as a scenario. Ask: what else could happen? Use multiple futures to guide decisions.
As you evaluate roadmaps, watch for traps like “My experience = everyone’s future” thinking, over-indexing on early adopters, and ignoring real-world constraints like budgets, compliance, and change management.
Tactically, we run quick scenario exercises, push ideas to extremes to explore implications, and extract the underlying insight (not the exact prediction). This complements continuous discovery and helps us write outcomes vs output OKRs that are resilient to uncertainty.
00:00 – The problem with future predictions
04:00 – Why experts get it wrong
06:00 – Scenario planning explained
12:00 – Early adopters vs. reality
20:00 – AI, GUIs, and extreme takes
27:00 – Using scenarios in product work
34:00 – Final thoughts
Resources & Links:
Follow Teresa Torres: https://ProductTalk.org
Follow Petra Wille: https://Petra-Wille.com
Mentioned in this episode:
Claude Code
What did I miss—or what scenarios are you considering for your team? Leave a comment below and let’s compare notes.
Inspired by this post on Product Talk.
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