Every planning cycle, I feel the drumbeat: “Show me the AI ROI—this quarter.” The pressure is real, especially when boards and CFOs expect immediate payback. Yet when I review stalled initiatives across teams and peers, the pattern is consistent: most companies treat AI like a feature to ship, not a system to manage. That mindset almost guarantees we measure the wrong things, declare victory (or failure) too early, and miss the durable value AI can create.
Here’s the core problem I see: we leap to solution and skip the counterfactual. Without a baseline, a clear control, or a defined “what would have happened otherwise,” we’re guessing. We also fixate on lagging, financial KPIs that move slowly (revenue, cost, risk), then use outputs—not outcomes—as OKRs. If we don’t align on outcomes vs output OKRs upfront, the best team in the world can still optimize for activity over impact.
My AI Strategy starts from a simple truth: value shows up along three vectors—revenue, cost, and risk—on different timelines. In the near term, we must validate leading indicators (adoption, engagement, activation) that ladder to those vectors through a transparent driver tree. Over time, those drivers compound into the lagging KPIs finance cares about. When we make the driver tree explicit, everyone can see how model precision, response time, and workflow integration roll up to conversion lift, case deflection, time-to-resolution, or reduced exposure.
To make this rigorous, I run a five-step playbook. First, define the decision and business outcome in plain terms. Second, instrument the baseline with behavioral analytics on a unified analytics platform—tools like Amplitude analytics or Pendo help expose friction points we’ll later target. Third, create a counterfactual using A/B testing and specify a minimum detectable effect (MDE) so we know how long to run and how much traffic we need. Fourth, quantify costs (training, inference, integration, change management) and include AI risk management, privacy-by-design, and data governance up front. Fifth, lock a measurement plan that connects leading indicators to lagging ROI through the driver tree.
Most AI initiatives don’t fail on model quality—they fail on adoption. If the workflow isn’t smoother, trust isn’t earned, or value isn’t obvious, users revert. That’s why I invest early in onboarding, in-app guides, product tours, and thoughtful tooltip design to reduce the time-to-first-value. Then I watch user activation, retention analysis, and task completion to ensure the assistive experience is not just novel—it’s habit-forming.
For generative use cases, eval-driven development is non-negotiable. I maintain offline evaluations for accuracy and safety, and online evaluations for business impact. Retrieval-first pipeline health, context window management, and prompt engineering affect reliability; so do latency and grounding quality. We ship behind feature flags, measure guardrail effectiveness, and tighten feedback loops from human-in-the-loop reviews into model updates—continuously.
On the business side, I avoid “AI theater” by structuring benefits like a CFO. Revenue: increased conversion or expansion driven by better recommendations, faster sales cycles, or higher trial activation. Cost: case deflection, agent time saved, fewer escalations, and lower rework. Risk: reduced exposure via automated checks, anomaly detection, and consistent policy application. If any claim can’t be tied to measured deltas—via A/B testing or strong quasi-experiments—it doesn’t go in the deck.
Build vs buy deserves the same discipline. I map platform scalability, governance requirements, and total cost of ownership against time-to-impact. Teams often underestimate integration and maintenance drag; a pragmatic mix of bought components with thin custom layers can accelerate outcomes while keeping options open. The goal isn’t to own every layer—it’s to own the learning loop and the differentiated experience.
I also remind teams that tooling should serve the strategy, not replace it. I’ve seen concise, effective messaging that captures the point: “Increase revenue, cut costs, and reduce risk with Pendo’s Software Experience Management platform. Optimize the entire software experience to drive adoption and improve engagement.” The words are compelling because they reflect the three-vector value model and the adoption imperative. The same standard should apply to any AI initiative we propose.
If you’re under pressure to prove ROI, shift the conversation: lead with the driver tree, specify your counterfactual, and anchor on leading indicators you can move in weeks—not quarters. Then connect those to the lagging KPIs finance expects over time. When we manage AI like a product—grounded in evidence, experimentation, and user-centered adoption—we don’t have to force ROI. We compound it.
Inspired by this post on Pendo – Perspectives.
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